There are some folks who still view this past year’s dramatic state budget deficits and the resulting spending cuts as a one-year road bump. I view it quite differently: as a dramatic reset in the size of our economy, and thus, in the size of our tax revenues and the amount of government we can afford.

Yet we’re not even to the point of being able to know what level we are resetting to – California’s revenues are still shrinking. April’s tax receipts were $3.6 billion behind projections, bringing our deficit to $20.2 billion by April 30.

This will push Sierra College and many other local governments back into budget cutting mode later this year. My view is, let’s get it over with and get the budget aligned with revenues sooner rather than later. If we take too long to make the tough decisions, we could easily draw reserves down so low that 2012-13 cuts will have to be far deeper, since we won’t have any margin for error.

The good news is, the broader economy two years ago and the state budget now is a great crystal ball for what will happen to local government in 6 months. The bad news is, it’s not a very pretty story.