I should preface this post by saying that I haven’t endorsed a candidate or made a decision who to vote for in California’s June primary election.
It struck me this morning that the media really gets on a meme sometimes and just won’t let it go. The current one is that Republicans can’t stand Mitt Romney and that’s why he keeps having close races with Rick Santorum.
Now, I know a little bit about the Republican base, so let me posit a different theory.
You know what the Republican base really wants? They want a rock solid candidate who has a 90%+ chance of beating President Obama. They believe with all their hearts that the President has made our economic situation worse than it had to be, and is hell bent on knocking down the pillars of American capitalism and taking us to a quasi-socialist European future of entitlements, deficits, slow growth and mediocrity.
So the big motivation among Republican primary voters is not that they hate Mitt Romney. It’s that they want a candidate relatively in line with their values who is highly likely to win.
Now take a look at the last few months: Tim Pawlenty had a hard time keeping big rooms of people awake. Herman Cain looked interesting, until he became the second coming of Bill Clinton. Michele Bachmann got a short look before people got a little scared. Rick Perry was looking good for three reasons, but I can’t remember what they were.
And now there are two viable candidates left, and they’re both flawed, for their own individual reasons. Romney for his health care bill and propensity to talk about Ann’s two Cadillacs, and Santorum for his earmarking and bad votes on entitlement spending.
So to me, this race makes perfect sense.
About 40% of the Republican base thinks Romney, despite his flaws, is best suited to beat the President. He gives a tight, concise focused speech and looks like a President from central casting.
About 38% think Santorum has a better shot because of his blue collar roots and his passionate, though rambling, delivery.
And the other 22% either want to colonize the moon, or don’t think it’s a big deal if Iran gets nuclear weapons. (Humor, people. It’s called humor.)
If I were to place a bet today, Romney will become the presumptive nominee somewhere around May. Then we get to see how he plays in that role. If he has a good summer and his numbers are looking okay, then fine.
If not, and if his delegate percentage is below 60%, expect fireworks in Tampa at the convention.
The little known secret is that many states don’t pledge their delegates on the first ballot. And the holders of the other chips – namely Santorum, Gingrich and Paul – dislike Romney enough that they could band together and push their delegates to another candidate.
If there was ever a year that the unthinkable could happen, this would be that year. No more than a 10% probability, but base Republican voters are that motivated. So if Romney becomes the presumptive nominee, he needs a relatively error-free summer.
Meanwhile, Team Obama has to figure out when they unload on Romney. Do they do it in the summer, because defining your opponent early is generally better than late? Or do they wait until after the convention to avoid bolstering the opportunity for a different opponent to emerge?
It’s going to be a fascinating year.
